By the Way, a Stock Market Crash is imminent

Further to yesterday's post, I've finally got my USDJPY, the temptation was just too strong. Traded at around 84 and with a stop below yesterday's (and 15-Year) low and as I believe it could go back to 88 or so in a few weeks time, I think it has not a so bad reward-risk profile : 6:1 roughly. If the pair reaches the 85-mark, I may consider putting on more as I guess a herd of Bulls is waiting there. This said, the contrarian argument I raised that the crowd doesn't expect an intervention falls in the water : it seems to me now the whole world speculates on an intervention... OK let's consider that I speculated that after me loads of others guys will speculate there will be an intervention. The various comments from Japanese officials and their interpretation become a bit messy and contradictory, now the more there will be the less impact they will have.

The action I missed yesterday in my comments was the one of Gold, not that the move was difficult to be missed (don't blog, trade!)... After briefly trading around $1,212 the Preciouuuuus bounced off its 50-day moving average rallying $25 at around $1,235 very quickly, in the space of 90 minutes or so and the 1-day ATR (Average True Range) had been around $12. If you know my trading style, you know that a move of almost 2 daily ATRs in 1 hour or so is one of the most powerful buy signal I know, Strength and Honour! As I write one day later, guys are fighting for the Preciouuuuuus at around $1,240. My opinion is there's still room to get in but I won't do it for now because first I want to focus on my USDJPY trade, second I'm still long Gold, purchased below $700 :D One reason why I think that the price of the metal can still increase in the longer term (as in months) is every time I consider to take my profits (Yes, I happen to consider it), I'm wondering in what currency I could sell my physical Gold in (coins and bars hidden in my garden, 12 steps away from the old tree): EUR ? Well... no, USD? Well... no, GBP? Well... no... etc. OK, you got it.

Today the release of the figures widens the current discrepancies between Germany and the US: the German IFO, polling corporate leaders, kept on surprising this morning with an expansion in August after a record +4.4 points in July while on the other side of the ocean, the series of bad news continues : the US July durable goods orders gained much smaller than expected (0.3% vs 3.0 expected) and the July new home sales dropped 12.4% (vs 0 expected). To me, we are currently seeing the outcome of a weak EUR particularly on the German Export (War) Machine. The benefits of a weak currency had been my point all the beginning of the year and justified my long DAX positions then. Now this said, the US still reigns supreme on the markets, when Wall Street sneezes, the rest of the world catches pneumonia, when Wall Street crashes, not sure what happens... By the way, I was about to forget : such a crash could be imminent as the Hindenburg Omen is confirmed, according to the Market Oracle. May the Lord of Trading be with you when it happens... IF it happens!

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FYI As this post is published: SPX 1046 // SX5E 2587 // NKY 8845 // DAX : 5899 // EURUSD 1.2657 // USDJPY 84.49 // XAUUSD : 1239