Too obvious actually...

Wow, some big moves on the EURUSD lately! To say I predicted their direction would be a lie, to say that I don't totally understand what happens would be an understatement : I just don't know. Looking at the momentum of the move down, I guess I'm not the only one : can you smell the triggered stop loss gun powder ???

My long position was stopped at around 1.31 a couple of hours before the FED announcement on Tuesday (the orange circle on the chart). When it announced its "QE-light" measures and as the pair was jumping, I was upset and thought I'd been stop gunned by some bastards who took my position to carry it to profit. That's the worst thing : be right and lose money... But since the very next day, I've been thanking every day the Lord of Trading for the trigger of my stop loss... As I write, the currency pair is fighting around 1.28, some 300 pips below my stop... I've to re-assess calmly the situation but it'sl probably the end of the long EURUSD-short SPX position I've been playing for a month and it would ultimately end with a small loss : the strategy was not bad (I'm still proud of me!) but globally I've had a bad timing on the trading and... it's just all about that...

Now how to explain the move up of the USD and its strength despite the QE-light and prospects of QE? Well, as told before, I'm not sure. The only reason I could see is not fundamental but purely technical, it's just what happens when everybody is on the same side of the boat : last week, it looked obvious that the EURUSD would grow, it looked obvious that if the FED gave any hint of QE, it would jump. Too obvious actually...

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FYI As this post is published: SPX 1082 // SX5E 2714 // NKY 9253 // DAX : 6120 // EURUSD 1.2765 // USDJPY 86.12 // XAUUSD : 1214